BMO Capital Markets

Company

Last mentioned: 5h ago

Timeline

  1. Statistics Canada releases May CPI data

    Headline inflation confirmed at 3.2%, up from 2.8% in April; highest reading since December 2023

  2. Gas prices retreat as peace talks progress

    BMO's Doug Porter reports June tracking for ~10% decline in gas prices amid US-Iran peace negotiations, signaling the inflation spike is already receding

  3. Gas prices surge 33.2% YoY

    Gasoline prices hit highest level since June 2022 as Iran conflict shuttered the Strait of Hormuz; air transportation costs also jumped 7.4%

  4. Inflation at 2.8%

    Annual inflation rate prior to the May jump, already showing upward pressure from early Strait of Hormuz disruption

  5. Previous inflation peak

    The last time Canada's headline inflation rate was as high as the 3.2% recorded in May 2026

  6. Previous gas price peak

    Gas prices reached record levels driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine — the comparator for May 2026's pump prices as the highest since this date

Stories mentioning BMO Capital Markets 1

Disruptions Bearish

Strait of Hormuz closure drives 33.2% gas price surge, rippling through supply chains

The Iran conflict's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint handling 20% of global oil — sent Canadian gasoline prices up 33.2% YoY in May. With jet fuel costs also climbing, air freight and logistics operators face rising input costs that will squeeze margins through the summer. Early June data already shows a 10% price retreat as peace talks progress, but the episode exposes the fragility of energy-dependent supply chains.

2 sources

About BMO Capital Markets coverage

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