Trucking Capacity Index at 43-Month High 55.0 as Rates Hold Near Record

For supply chain professionals managing freight spend, the sustained tight truck market demands immediate contingency planning. With the Freight Rate Index holding near record levels and capacity expansion lagging, shippers face prolonged upward pressure on transportation costs that could erode margins and disrupt just-in-time manufacturing.

The trucking industry is experiencing a persistent capacity squeeze that threatens to keep freight rates at near-record levels well into 2026. According to ACT Research's June For-Hire Trucking Index, the Freight Rate Index fell 9.5 points month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 70.2, down from May's all-time high of 79.7. Despite the pullback, June's reading remains one of the strongest in the survey's nearly 17-year history, signaling that spot market rates are still firmly elevated. At the same time, the Capacity Index rose 1.5 points to 55.0, a 43-month high, driven by expansion among larger, well-capitalized fleets rather than a broad recovery. This tight market dynamic has swung decisively in favor of carriers, and ACT Research warns that it will continue to push rates higher.

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With the Freight Rate Index holding near record levels and capacity expansion lagging, shippers face prolonged upward pressure on transportation costs that could erode margins and disrupt just-in-time manufacturing.

The capacity shortage is rooted in multiple structural factors. Class 8 tractor sales have been running below replacement levels industrywide, limiting the ability of fleets to add trucks. This has been exacerbated by a wave of federal regulations from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), most notably the nondomiciled CDL restrictions that took effect in mid-March 2026. Those rules, combined with tighter ELD and registration fraud enforcement and driver school closures, sent the Driver Availability Index plummeting to a five-year low of 30.4 in April. Although the index ticked up slightly to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May, it remains deeply depressed, underscoring an acute shortage of qualified drivers. The year-to-date trend suggests that the driver pool may have stabilized near a floor, but any further tightening could send rates even higher.

The outlook for shippers is challenging. ACT Research expects capacity expansion to accelerate in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 as spot rate gains work their way through to contract rates and carriers begin replacing aging equipment in anticipation of EPA’27 emissions rules. However, this expansion is likely to be uneven, concentrated among larger fleets with better access to capital and drivers. Smaller carriers, which make up a significant portion of the truckload sector, remain squeezed by high equipment costs and driver recruitment challenges. Consequently, total industry capacity may not keep pace with freight demand, particularly if the economy sustains its current growth trajectory.

For supply chain managers, the implications are immediate and costly. Transportation budgets will face sustained upward pressure, forcing shippers to lock in contract rates at elevated levels or accept volatile spot market pricing. Just-in-time manufacturing and retail replenishment models are especially vulnerable, as any surge in demand can quickly translate into spot rate spikes. Some shippers are already exploring multimodal options, such as intermodal rail, or investing in dedicated fleet capacity to insulate themselves from market swings.