Cathay Pacific Halts Mideast Cargo Flights, Risking 12% Capacity Drop

For logistics managers dependent on the Asia-Mideast-Europe air corridor, Cathay Pacific's indefinite postponement of freighter and passenger belly cargo services to Riyadh and Dubai is a sharp reminder that geopolitical risk remains the primary capacity wildcard. The previous US-Iran conflict shattered over 12% of global air cargo capacity; with hostilities reigniting, the industry must brace for another potential plunge, scrambling contingency plans for just-in-time inventory flows.

The re-escalation of large-scale hostilities between the United States and Iran has forced Cathay Pacific Airways to indefinitely postpone the resumption of passenger and cargo flights to key Middle East destinations, a move that threatens to re-tighten air freight capacity on the vital Asia-to-Europe trade lane. On Friday, July 17, 2026, the Hong Kong-based carrier announced it was pushing back the planned September 1 restart of daily passenger services to Dubai to October 25, and deferring the four-times-weekly passenger flights to Riyadh until October 26. More critically, the dedicated freighter service to Riyadh, which was expected to resume on August 1 with its fleet of 20 Boeing 747 freighters, has been shelved entirely with no new start date. The decision follows similar actions by Luxembourg-based all-cargo operator Cargolux, which earlier notified customers that its planned restart of flights to Dubai, Kuwait, Bahrain, Doha, Dammam, and Riyadh remain suspended indefinitely due to ongoing missile and drone attacks in the Persian Gulf region. Only Cargolux’s flights to Muscat, Oman, continue to operate as scheduled. This dual suspension eliminates a significant portion of lift capacity for shippers moving goods between the Gulf, Europe, and China.

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During the initial phase of the US-Iran conflict in early 2026, global air cargo capacity collapsed by more than 12% year-over-year, according to data from freight analytics firm Xeneta and Boeing.

The capacity implications are stark. During the initial phase of the US-Iran conflict in early 2026, global air cargo capacity collapsed by more than 12% year-over-year, according to data from freight analytics firm Xeneta and Boeing. After a ceasefire took hold in May, capacity gradually recovered to approximately 4% above the prior year as airlines reinstated services and newly converted Boeing 777 freighters entered the market. The renewed hostilities could quickly erase those gains. With Cathay Pacific alone responsible for a substantial share of air cargo traffic on these routes—the combined passenger freighter and belly capacity makes it the ninth-largest air cargo carrier by scheduled traffic, per IATA—shippers are facing the prospect of another capacity crunch. The indefinite loss of Riyadh as a freighter destination and the delayed return of Dubai passenger belly capacity will force freight forwarders to scramble for alternative routings, likely driving up spot rates and disrupting just-in-time supply chains reliant on air freight for high-value, time-sensitive goods such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive components.