Panama Canal cuts transits to 32 daily as 55% of Neopanamax capacity hit

For supply chain and logistics planners, the Panama Canal's latest restriction round is a double capacity shock: fewer daily slots and shallower draught limits that strip payload from every Neopanamax transit. Braemar's data shows 45% of Neopanamax passages and about 55% of nominal TEU capacity could be affected, which translates directly into tighter space, higher rates and schedule risk on South America west coast trade lanes just as volumes peak.

The Panama Canal is tightening again, and this time the constraint on container supply chains is compounding rather than singular. From early September, the waterway will simultaneously cut the number of daily transit slots and lower the maximum draught for Neopanamax vessels, reducing both how many ships can pass and how much cargo each can carry. The immediate commercial signal came from French carrier CMA CGM, which has postponed — but not cancelled — a $150 per TEU Low Water Surcharge on cargo moving from South America's west coast through the canal. The surcharge, originally slated for 1 September, was pushed to 1 October in a customer advisory issued on 27 August. Maritime consultant Lars Jensen flagged the three-day gap between announcement and postponement, suggesting the original start date 'seems more like an initial miscommunication of the implementation date' than a change in underlying cost pressure.

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Braemar's data shows 45% of Neopanamax passages and about 55% of nominal TEU capacity could be affected, which translates directly into tighter space, higher rates and schedule risk on South America west coast trade lanes just as volumes peak.

The new restrictions are specific and sequenced. From 2 September, the maximum permitted draught for Neopanamax vessels drops to 14.63 metres, and it falls again to 14.48 metres from 1 October. On the transit side, the number of daily passages is expected to fall from 36 to 34 on 3 September, then to 32 from 15 September, though the canal authority has noted these figures remain subject to change. For a canal whose Neopanamax locks were designed to handle vessels drawing up to 15.2 metres in normal conditions, each incremental reduction removes a meaningful slice of payload from every transit.

Broker and analyst firm Braemar quantified the exposure using July data: of 189 Neopanamax transits that month, 85 — involving 78 individual vessels — were made by ships drawing 15 metres or more. Under the new draught ceilings, roughly 45% of Neopanamax transits would be affected, and because deeper-drafting vessels tend to be the larger ones, that cohort represents about 55% of nominal TEU capacity moving through the Neopanamax locks. Analyst Jonathan Roach distilled the difference from past episodes: 'This time the issue is not simply fewer transit slots. It is fewer slots and less cargo per ship.'

The CMA CGM surcharge applies across a sprawling set of destination trades — North Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, the Middle East Gulf, the Red Sea, South and West Africa, Central America and Mexico's east coasts, the Caribbean, the US east coast, the US Gulf, and Canada's east coast — effectively pricing the canal's constraints into most headhaul and backhaul moves out of South America's west coast.

The tightening echoes the 2023-2024 drought cycle, when an El Niño-driven dry spell forced the Panama Canal Authority to slash daily transits from a normal 36 to as low as 22, with draught limits touching roughly 13.4 metres. That episode idled capacity, triggered widespread low-water surcharges and pushed some carriers to reroute via Suez or around Cape Horn. The current restrictions are less severe so far, but they arrive as the canal was still normalising operations and as the broader market is already absorbing capacity from Red Sea diversions and record newbuild deliveries.